(THE KASHMIR SCENARIO POLL ANALYSIS )
MALIK SAJID/ RAMEEZ MAKHDOOMI
The political analysis conducted by the Kashmir scenario on the historic polls 2014 Jammu & Kashmir suggest that People’s Democratic Party (PDP) could be the single largest party after the verdict is out on 23rd December. These elections are historic in a sense that ruling party at Center BJP is for the first time eyeing a government of its own in Jammu and Kashmir.
The Kashmir Scenario Analysis Suggests that BJP Could endaging 22 seats halfway short of the majority . National Conference could end with 12 seats, PDP Could end with 32 seats , Congress would bag about 10 seats , whileas the smaller parties and Independents could bag about 11 seats.
In Srinagar District the previous electoral history when National Conference used to sweep might not happen again with PDP expected to make inroads especially in constituencies like Amirakadal and Hazratbal which have almost everytime gone to NC. However, there are high chances that NC will retain Khanyar and also stands right chance in Zadibal. In chenab region the battle is expected to be intense between all the four parties with National Conference likely to upset BJP in Ramban, BJP Likely to upset National Conference in Kishtwar, Inderwal mostly likely to be bagged by Congress. Chief Minister Omar Abdullah is likely to win Beerwah constituency and face a daunting task in grabbing Sonawar with odds favouring PDP. PDP could face tough time to retain its bastion Wachi and will be locked in tough fight in Shangus and Rajpora . In Pir Panjal NC, PDP will give tough fight to BJP in all constituencies .In Jammu, Samba and Kathua BJP could make sweep barring few exceptions.
In Pir Panjal region, NC, PDP will give tough fight to BJP whileas Congress, PDP will be pitted against BJP in Ladakh region. At the moment analysis suggest NC-PDP, NC-CONGRESS, NC- BJP,Congress- PDP, PDP- BJP all alliances are possible if the verdict is fractured.