Aijaz Hajini
In June 2011, President Obama announced his plan to begin the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. After that, according to the President, “our troops will continue coming home at a steady pace as Afghan security forces move into the lead and our mission will change from combat to support”.
By 2014, this process of transition will be complete, and the Afghan people will be responsible for their own security and whatever is on the tinderbox will be the concern of the people of Afghanistan and none else. As per the past experiences of the region are concerned there is a growing fear of spreading the tribal wars which were existent before the establishment of Taliban and the US will use its covert methods to left the region divided in an environment of civil war the best example of which is the Iraq, but if Taliban succeed in having a grip over the region it will cost many neighboring countries who were attempting with west in containing the elements of Islamic Radicalism. The Indian government which is the ally of US in the so called war against terrorism and at present is helping the American backed Karzai regime to consolidate its roots to which Indian Special Forces are training the Afghani government militia and also providing them with weaponry will cost India in the in the long run because of the above stated argument and of being a persecutor of their brethren in Kashmir valley.
Though ideological exigencies are the foremost priorities for the survival of any insurgent or militant group and ‘Afghanistan Taliban’ is not having the ideology to invade foreign countries as was the case with al-Qaeda but it can also be said that contrary to their ideology during the 1990 they infiltrated fighters into Kashmir to clash with Indian forces till America invaded the Afghanistan and then they become concerned about their own security. Their fate, however, is turning them two decades back as after defeating the world’s most sophisticated armed forces, Taliban’s moral is reviving more so every day and in the near future they can reestablish their Islamic regime which will not bode well for the Indian security apparatus in Jammu and Kashmir as expressed by Indian intelligence agencies.
The analysts and observers are of the opinion that after a decade long battle with the faraway enemy their (Talibans) next mission will be to infiltrate necessarily their volunteers in the Indian occupied Kashmir in order to combat with Indian forces. As infiltration attempts and ceasefire violations along the LOC/international border with Pakistan register a spurt, the Indian security agencies are worried that Pakistan’s ISI may now try to increasingly push battle-hardened Afghan Taliban into Jammu & Kashmir. The trend is expected to grow further by the next year.
It has been revealed that the staunch anti-India elements within the ISI are supposedly keen to open fronts on both the western and eastern borders of Pakistan. In recent past, the Indian consulate at Jalalabad in eastern Afghanistan was attacked, though there they did not suffer any casualties but the real worry is that ISI and insurgent groups may have begun to divert Taliban fighters to stoke the militancy fires in Jammu and Kashmir.
Agencies here fear that unlike Kashmiri rebels who join militancy soon after training in insurgent camps across a POK and lack the commitment and conditioning to sustain the fight against the Indian security forces both on the border and in the J&K hinterland, the Afghan fighters are more committed and battle-trained.
“The purpose behind sending these “professional fighters” seems to ensure better success rates of infiltration attempts and use them to trigger a direct confrontation with the Indian security forces deployed in Jammu & Kashmir. With pro-active operations lately on the slow-burner, the civilian casualties have been minimal and “by engaging the forces, these war-ready Taliban elements aim to provoke the security forces into intensifying active operations which could lead to a rise in collateral damage and civilian casualties, and revive the popular angst against the Indian security establishment,” an intelligence official pointed out. Unlike the Kashmiri militants, the Afghan element can sustain themselves for much longer. The security establishment fears that Pakistani elements may try to push in more militants into J&K over the next couple of months, before infiltration routes get inaccessible due to snow. The aim is to send enough jehadis to ensure an eventful summer next year, said intelligence sources.
The meeting of the two Premiers of India and Pakistan in the US has yielded no faith of harmonious future and will continue to remain fruitless unless they do not indulge seriously in addressing the issue of Kashmir or Kashmiri and not of the bus, trade and train. Also it will be the only way-out to deal with the danger of not only of curbing the increasing rise in militancy particularly of infiltration of the foreign militants like Taliban or Talibanization but it can wipe out the conflict altogether for which no bomb or bullet is needed and the lives of all the pro-Indian, Pro-Kashmiri and Pro-Pakistani could be protected otherwise if the basic and fundamental issue remains unaddressed and the innocent Kashmiris remain in the ongoing state of trauma and trouble then it would be same as to remain in the fool’s paradise to imagine about to establishing peace out of purposeless meetings and the day is not far when the world’s foremost nuclear flashpoint will be near ‘Armageddon’ and none other but the stake holders will lost in the rubble which are the inevitable fruits of coercion ,discrimination and exploitation.
(The author is a research scholar at the department of political science R D University Jabalpur and can be mailed at: waniaijaz18@gmail.com. The views expressed are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the newspaper)