Zubair Malik
The mainstream political parties in Jammu and Kashmir have locked their horns for what in all possibility will prove a hotly contested electoral battle for power in 2014.While the major fight in the Kashmir valley seems between the National conference and Peoples Democratic Party,the Congress will do its best to ensure its dominance in the Jammu region.Meanwhile the talks of a 3rd front have again evolved but given the complex nature of Kashmir’s political landscape, its formation seems a remote possibility.However the entry of Peoples conference in the fray has added spice and given the party’s strong presence in the Kupwara district, largely owing to the charisma of late Abdul Gani Lone,the competition therein will be worth watching for the political pundits and keen observers.
Needles to mention the manifesto of the political parties of different hues share a common theme and that is addressing the political issue of Kashmir. In this regard the attempts of National conference since beginning have revolved around in ensuring and strengthening the pillars of maximum autonomy for Jammu and Kashmir, as guaranteed under the Indian constitution. However of late it has turned out to be a mere cosmetic exercise and people at large here no longer believe and take serious this political rhetoric raised time and again. Instead this gimmick is resorted to keeping in consideration the political sensibilities of the people of Kashmir and serve as a cloak for the party’s failure in ensuring the transparent administration, better governance and the like. However we cannot afford to ignore the strong presence of party at the grass root level which has been instrumental in keeping the National conference relevant in any political discourse of Kashmir. The National conference owes a strong cadre of dedicated workers in every region of Kashmir and going by the past experience the National conference in all possibility will emerge again as a strong political force in the coming assembly elections.
The major coalition partner, Congress, is and will continue to be a key to any future government in Jammu and Kashmir. It is an irony that in any ‘inadvertent’ government failure or for the same matter if a scam surfaces involving the congressmen, congress manages to steer its sinking ship to safety as the blame game and the resultant brawl ensues between PDP and National conference.PDP has throughout remained diplomatic in its dealing with congress for it wants to keep its chances to assume the reins of power always open. Although we occasionally hear the statements of one of the stalwarts of National conference, literally speaking, abusing the congress but those are often taken his personal views and even mocked and ridiculed at times by his own party-men. The endeavor of congress this time will be to improve its share of seats and for all intents and purposes ensure its hegemony in its strong bastion, viz the Jammu region. However the party needs to review its organizational set up and bring to book and deal sternly with its corrupt faces to restore its credibility. It will be interesting to see the party’s performance in the valley. If the beliefs and statements of congress state president are an indicator, the congress will really endeavor to increase its share of seats and emerge as the single largest party.
The third major political force of Jammu and Kashmir, PDP has a lot at stake in the coming assembly elections. It is on record that the party claimed overwhelming victory in the Panchayat elections but could not secure a single legislative council seat reserved for the panchayats. In its brief tenure of government , PDP did manage to strike a different note. The common people felt a sigh of relief in as far as the security situation of kashmir was concerned. The notorious STF was largely disciplined, many separatists were set free and they were given a considerable political space in what has been otherwise a choked political system wherein every effort is made to force the people to toe the official narrative. However, the party’s inept handling of the 2008 Amarnath land row meant its doors were closed. However the party’s performance as the leading opposition party has been rather dismal. Far from inviting the attention of NC-Congress led government towards its failures in addressing the basic sadak,BijliandPani issues of common people it has been selective in its approach. The Party’s endeavor throughout this period (2008-2012) has revolved around demeaning and discrediting the leadership of National Conference. The Party raised much hue and cry over the mysterious death of Haji Syed Yousuf, Shopian tragedy, the indiscriminate killing of 110 people and the recent unfortunate episode of Afzal Guru but did little appreciable to join the chorus and support the national conference’s initiative when demands were raised to lift the AFSPA from Jammu and Kashmir. Even the token resignation from the membership of legislative assembly and legislative council was not resorted to when the emotions in Kashmir ran to a high feverish intensity on account of the suppression they suffered during this period although the public statements were suggesting the regret and pain the party was feeling at the collective loss and suffering of people whom every party claims to represent. Similarly the developmental issues were relatively put on the back burner by the PDP in its role of a responsible opposition party. Giventhis ,however the anti-incumbency factor may work to the party’s advantage. The recent activities of PDP which witnessed a spurt in the workers’ conventions as well as public rallies, both in kashmir as well as Jammu regions,strongly suggest that the party is serious enough to return with a bang and ensure its bonhomie with power. Theself-rule document coupled with the failures of the present political dispensation will be high on party’s agenda in the forthcoming assembly elections.
The BJP capitalized on the communal passions unleashed by the 2008 Amarnath agitation and bagged a good number of seats numbering eleven. However the rift within the party ranks and the relatively poor performance in the 2009 parliamentary elections doesn’t give much hope to the beleaguered state unit of BJP. The National panthers party would invest its energies to keep itself alive in the political discourse of Kashmir .The party will be eyeing for at least five assembly seats. The other forces, although lacking coherent ideology and programme, could prove the game changers. The Democratic Party (Nationalist),People’s Democratic Front and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) leaders will invest their whole lot to ensure they keep themselves wedded to power.
It will be interesting to see the performance of People’s Conference led by SajadGani Lone. The latter has definitely scored over other lesser political forces of Kashmir in as much as he has attempted and is persisting in giving his party a strong organizational Skelton. The people’s Conference strong bastion, Kupwara, will turn to be a big political battle-ground and in the words of my friend keen political observer,Handwara will be the most hotly contested assembly constituency in the ensuing assembly elections.Little known fact but what could prove to be of consequential importance is the fact that people’s Conference has won over to its fold two key figures of Budgam and Beerwa assembly segments of district Budgam.
To brief the whole argument, Jammu and Kashmir is brewing for an intense election battle. Although the separatists have issued the boycott call but it hardly seems that it will exercise its influence on the ground, unless something explosive and emotive, touching the delicate political sensibilities of the people happens overnight. It takes not years but moments to witness the political metamorphosis in Kashmir. From the sea of people, flooding the streets of Srinagar in the 2008 summer in the backdrop of Amarnath land row to the massive turnout in the assembly elections held in the same year and then again in 2010 the same common people virtually halted and choked the wheels of government, braved the bullets and then finally ended with providing smiles to the otherwise worried political leadership of India by their massive participation in the panchayat elections, everything is documented in the volatile history of Kashmir!!
The third major political force of Jammu and Kashmir, PDP has a lot at stake in the coming assembly elections. It is on record that the party claimed overwhelming victory in the Panchayat elections but could not secure a single legislative council seat reserved for the panchayats. In its brief tenure of government