The latest Nuclear Notebook report by bulletin of Atomic Scientists reported that Pakistan could emerge as the fifth largest nuclear power by 2025 with a stockpile of 110-130 warheads now, compared with 90-110 in 2011. It also said that Pakistan continues to expand its nuclear arsenal and production of fissile material.
The Nuclear Notebook is of the most authoritative sources of information on Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities.
Nuclear expert Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris acclaimed a report confirming that Pakistan is developing short-range nuclear capable missiles to repel any invasion by Indian troops.
The report which is scheduled to be released on Thursday in US says,”One of the most controversial new nuclear-capable missiles in the Pakistani arsenal is the NASR (Hatf-9), a short range, solid-fuel missile with a range of only 60 km (37 miles). With a range too short to attack strategic targets inside India, NASR appears intended for battlefield use against invading Indian troops.”
Kristensen told TOI that,”Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons were intended more for use against a large Indian conventional invasion and occupation of Pakistani territory and not any limited anti-terror operation on Pakistani territory.”
“That’s not to say that such an act would not be seen as a grave violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty and met with a forceful conventional military response. But an Indian strike against a terrorist camp would probably be small in size, limited in scope, focused, and brief,” he said.
“Yet even a brief anti-terrorist strike could easily escalate to a larger conventional confrontation that carries with it the risk and dangers of further escalation to nuclear weapons use,” he added.
According to the report, four operating plutonium production reactors, and uranium facilities, Pakistan’s stockpile will likely increase over the next 10 years.
The report says, “Pakistan appears to have six types of currently operational nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, plus at least two more under development: the short-range Shaheen-1A and medium-range Shaheen-3. Pakistan is also developing two new cruise missiles, the ground-launched Babur (Hatf-7) and the air-launched Raoad (Hatf-8)”.