Mohammad Mutaher Zerger
The latest risk of Ms. Mehbooba of contesting the Legislative assembly seat of Anantnag constituency, left vacant after the demise of her father Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, seems to have paid off, in spite of the all the latest controversies surrounding the chief minister and her government. It is widely speculated from all corners that her win is imminent,
It was predicted that the latest controversies of; Cat and pigeon, Sanik colonies, Kashmiri Pandit resettlement modus operandi, would have had some effect on the voter psyche and hence the voter turnaround and voter conversion, but it seems the voters have rather chosen the episodes which are very recent, like the Magdamisation of roads and development policies, once again proving the concept wandering in the minds of many strategists that Kashmiri people/voters are a little myopic; their memory fades away a little fast, it gets erased and occupied by only the latest. Also it is very important to analyse here that voters have taken PDP as a separate entity than BJP, even though PDP is in alliance with BJP, in government formation of J&K.
Ms. Mufti could have had selected the route of upper house to get entrance in the J&K assembly but she choose the difficult one, it is worth remembering here, she has never lost any assembly election in her long career and the risks she has always taken has paid off, be it contesting amid the pool of controversies or delaying occupying the post of chief minister ship for months.
But among all, these below given points need to be emphasised upon, which might have had played a role in her prospective win.
First and foremost, the grass root workers and their hard work on the grass root level; From months all together, the youth PDP workers are going from house to house in the upper reaches of Anantnag and explaining to the voters in a lucid way and language which they understand,the development work which their party has taken up and are going to take up in the near future.
This strategy paid off, that too when Ms. Mufti holds the chair of Chief Minister, which makes selling it to voters much easy. This strategy has paid PDP well in past also, the connect which the PDP workers have with the people, their way and the terminology and process with which it is disseminated at the gross root level, stays good in the minds of the people and that too when these types of meets happen recurrently and at the time of the immediate elections.
Direct marketing strategy is an effective tool in corporate world and now being exploited at political front also.
Home district factor; This factor even played with the psyche of voters. Ms. Mufti’s birth place is at Akhran, Nowpora in district Anantnag. Voters seem to be emotionally attached to the fact that daughter needs to win from her home. “Kour Chaa Neiran Malneye Khalee”
Gender Factor; Ms. Mufti being the first female Chief Minister of J&K and her policies revolving around women, like Ladli Beti, Separate buses for females, free female education, 50% subsidised scooty loans for female college going students has left some impact on the female population of the constituency. Out of total 84067 electors, including, 42840 male, 41227 female and 4229 migrant voters, a total of 28446 casted their votes, a breakup of 15384 male, 13062 female and 638 migrant voters who exercised their franchise, rendering the male voter turnout percentage to 36% approximately and female voter turnout percentage to 32% approximately. It was predicted that, in this period, of Ramadhan in hot summers, the female turnout will be minimum; the female folk will be busy in daily chores which multiplies in Ramadhan time and with a lesser energy levels and it is likely that the female turnout will be minimum. But the 32% turnout equivalent to that of males proved that the Gender factor and female friendly policies of Ms. Mufti has played here somewhere deep in the minds of female folk.
Power flux; In India hardly any CM (maybe one) have lost the assembly by elections when on the chair of CM. When a person is on the chair of chief minister, the ultimate power of the sate and contesting an election it is believed that a power flux exists in the minds of the voters and administrators and all gets sucked in the flux.
New reengineering policies in education sector; it was widely predicted that the new education policies won’t go well at the ground level. The policies which were directed towards improving the quality and performance of teachers have left these teachers in an angry state and as teachers are seen upon as prime advisors in villages, with their words leaving a deep impact on the psyche of people there, it was predicted they will spread a negative word about the current government. But it seems teachers have felt and taken these changes and results of these changes in a positive manner, though there was an initial tough resistance towards the change.
But there still remain some areas where a thorough analysis needs to be done;
The voter turnout percentage as compared to past two elections seems to have decreased though marginally, the voter turnout this election was 33.8% before that it was 39% and before that it was 41%.
The workers who have been working at the grass root levels seem to have some concern about the concern Ms. Mufti puts in them when in CM’s office. Some of them want Ms. Mufti to reciprocate in the similar energy levels as they have put in, in her win. It needs to be seen now, whether Ms. Mufti will address all the concerns of her party workers, once she is back in her CM’ office.
The author is Head Business Development McDonalds India and a psephologist by hobby and can be reached at mutaher@gmail.com
Disclaimer: The author has tried to sketch the article from a strategic point of view.